分析大型风机液力变桨系统的失效特性,基于三参数Weibull分布函数拟合可靠性衰变规律,通过建立极大似然方程组对函数参数逐一求解。采用遗传算法优化求解过程,并在遗传算法种群迭代过程中动态修正个体的交叉及变异概率,以解决适应度发散的问题。结合实际数据,计算得出大型风机液力变桨系统的三参数Weibull分布可靠性函数,并将其与二参数Weibull分布拟合结果进行对比。结果表明,基于三参数Weibull分布的时变失效率估算结果的适应性更高,避免了在失效初始阶段的不合理估计,能够更好地模拟大型风机液力变桨系统的失效特点。
Abstract
Based on the brief analysis of the failure characteristics of the large-scale wind turbine hydraulic pitch system, the reliability decay law is fitted by three-parameter Weibull distribution function. And the function parameters are solved by establishing a maximum likelihood equation set. At the same time, the genetic algorithm is used to optimize the solution process. The individual crossover and mutation probability are dynamically modified during the genetic algorithm population iteration process, so as to solve the problem of fitness divergence. Combined with the actual data, the three-parameter Weibull distribution reliability function of the large-scale wind turbine hydraulic pitch system is calculated. Thereafter, it is compared with the two-parameter Weibull distribution fitting results. The results show that the time-varying failure rate estimation results based on the three-parameter Weibull distribution are more adaptable. It avoids unreasonable estimation at the initial stage of failure, and can better simulate the failure characteristics of large-scale wind turbine hydraulic pitch systems.
关键词
润滑系统 ;
可靠性 ;
遗传算法 ;
Weibull分布 ;
极大似然法
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Key words
lubrication system ;
reliability ;
genetic algorithm ;
weibull distribution ;
maximum likelihood method
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基金
国家重点研发计划(2018YFB2001604);广州市黄埔区国际科技合作项目(2018GH12);国机智能青年基金(173000058)
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